The 2026 Zero-Day Market: AI-Accelerated Discovery, $10M Prices, and Shifting Power
How AI tools have transformed vulnerability research, broker economics, and the geopolitics of zero-day supply chains
An in-depth intelligence report on the 2026 zero-day market — current pricing for iOS, Android, Chrome, Windows, and industrial control systems; the impact of AI-accelerated vulnerability discovery; and how nation-states are reshaping the broker ecosystem.
Executive Takeaway — TL;DR
- Category:
- Zero-Day
- Author:
- Raptor Cyber Team
- Published:
- 2026-01-18
- Read Time:
- 26 min
- Key Terms:
- zero-day, market analysis, iOS, pricing, AI vulnerability research
The 2026 Zero-Day Market
Market Overview
The zero-day market has undergone fundamental transformation in 2025–2026, driven primarily by AI-accelerated vulnerability discovery and escalating nation-state demand.
Current Pricing (Q1 2026)
Mobile Platforms (Highest Value)
| Target | Type | Price Range | |--------|------|------------| | iOS Full Chain (0-click) | RCE + Persistence | $5M – $10M | | Android Full Chain (0-click) | RCE + Persistence | $2.5M – $5M | | iOS Single Bug | RCE | $500K – $2M |
Desktop/Server
| Target | Type | Price Range | |--------|------|------------| | Chrome RCE + Sandbox Escape | Browser | $1M – $3M | | Windows 11 LPE | Privilege Escalation | $200K – $800K | | Linux Kernel RCE | Remote Code Execution | $400K – $1.2M |
Industrial Control Systems (Growing Rapidly)
| Target | Type | Price Range | |--------|------|------------| | Siemens SCADA | ICS/SCADA | $1M – $4M | | Schneider Electric | ICS/SCADA | $800K – $3M |
AI's Impact on Vulnerability Research
AI tools have dramatically changed the economics of zero-day research:
- Fuzzing acceleration: AI-guided fuzzing is 10-100x faster than traditional approaches
- Code analysis: LLMs can analyze millions of lines of code for vulnerable patterns
- Variant finding: once one vulnerability class is found, AI finds all variants automatically
- Exploit development: AI assists in developing reliable exploitation from raw bug reports
Net result: supply of zero-days is increasing faster than patching rates, driving down prices at the low end while high-value mobile 0-clicks remain scarce.
Major Brokers (2026)
- Zerodium: US-based, publicly known, works exclusively with government buyers
- Crowdfense: UAE-based, aggressive pricing, alleged ties to Gulf government programs
- Operation Zero: Russia-based, pays 2-3x market rate for Russian government exclusivity
- Dark web brokers: growing ecosystem of anonymous brokers serving criminal market
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